People ask me all the time, what do you consider the ‘real’ number on a particular game? Is it the opening line? The closing line? Well my answer to them is … neither. I worked at an offshore sportsbook for 8 years and sometimes that opener can be a ‘false’ opener. What I mean by that is, the sportsbook releases a number, the sharp players bang it up and when the dust settles that’s your REAL number. If you’re talking about football, this is the number the game stays on most of the week (barring an injury or suspension etc.).
In the case of basketball sports betting tips it’s the number the game is on during the middle part of the day/early night after the dust has settled. I also tend to disregard the last hour flurry that happens as well. This frenzy is more driven by the public at large and believe me, it doesn’t make sense to put much stock in what they think. When I worked at a sportsbook, we used to love having a game the general public loaded up on because more often than not, they were dead wrong. My betting system found at is entirely based on these spreads so I have to pay very close attention.
That’s why it’s so vital to have this knowledge in your back pocket. Remember you don’t want to bet a game when it first comes out. The wiseguys and sharp bettors are just licking their chops waiting for that line to open, and when they bet they bet big and this will move the spread by as much as a couple of points. What if you bet a game at -3 when the real spread should’ve been -1.5?
The same goes for the last minute activity, or as we used to call it, Amateur Hour. Everybody and their brother is trying to get down now and if you waited this long you might as well just forget it. The line is like a pogo stick at this point. One of the most important sports betting tips is that you want to make sure you get your bets down at the ‘true’ number if you want to be successful at betting on sports.
