In the event you haven’t seen it already, you need to take a look at Deadspin.com’s excerpts in the new Tim Donaghy book. Within the passages, the disgraced ex – NBA referee makes several fairly preposterous, yet distinct, claims about how exactly officials would go out of their own way to have an effect on NBA games. Essentially, he admits that the refs had no integrity and would mess around with results on stuff as insignificant as who didn’t need to tip the ball boys!
The most mind blowing components in the book are when he names names, pointing out specific referees and just how they enjoy manipulating games. Clearly if you have any sports handicapping problems, they won’t matter with Tim around. He mentions Dick Bavetta, who had been a ref in what most individuals regard as being the worst officiated game in NBA history: Gm. 6 in the 2002 Western Conference Finals between the Sacramento Kings and L.A. Lakers. Plus although this claim is up for discussion, he also makes this particular accusation towards Bavetta:
“The real reason that I bet the losing team was that I was just about
certain they would cover the spread, no matter how badly they
played. That is where Dick Bavetta comes into the picture.
From my earliest involvement with Bavetta, I learned that he likes
to keep games close, and then when a team gets down by double-
digit points, he helps the players save face. He accomplishes this
act of mercy by quietly, and frequently, blowing the whistle on
the team that’s having the better night. Team fouls suddenly
become one-sided between the contestants, and the score begins
to tighten up. That’s the way Dick Bavetta referees a game – and
everyone in the league knew it.”
Alright, so working off of that assumption it should mean that if you bet on underdogs in all the games Bavetta officiated you should have positively cleaned up even with any sports handicapping issues. I’m not saying you would win every game; that would be ridiculous. But the way Donaghy describes it, he made a killing with this betting theory.
I had been interested therefore I performed a number of investigations and the outcomes were very darn persuading that Donaghy is full of crap. Should you not understand, you must hit 52.7% of the wagers to generate a profit if you are wagering with common 10 cent juice ($110 to win $100). Donaghy was pressured out following the 2006-07 season therefore i looked over the 10 year period prior to that period and here are a few things I discovered.
Over that 10 year stretch there were only 2 seasons that returned a profitable percentage betting on underdogs in games that Bavetta officiated! Those were the seasons of 1998-99 when ‘dogs came back at a 55.7% clip and also the 2001-02 when they hit 57.1%. For those 2 years, that’s not bad money. But that was it, not one other season returned at least a 52.7%. In fact, you would have lost your shirt in just about every other season following this theory. The 1999-2000 season ‘dogs hit 48%. In 2000-01, it was exactly 50%. In the 2002-2003 season, the underdogs only hit 46%. The year after that it was 45% and the year after that only 41%. You’d go broke with that kind of strike rate.
I believe this small study destroys the ‘Bavetta Theory’ presented by Donaghy and calls into query the truth of his additional statements. I am not saying the NBA ought to be held unaccountable, and that the refereeing is extremely poor occasionally, or that you should disregard sports handicapping, however we need to question regardless of whether the remainder of Donaghy’s information is legitimate. If he lied in regards to this, we simply cannot consider his additional claims on face worth either.
